# The Odds of Football Betting: Get an Edge by Applying the Probability Theory

|The odds of football betting are not as straightforward as most people may think. In fact, there is a large amount of analysis involved to determine the winning probabilities for each team.

The probability theory can be applied to make more accurate predictions and increase your chances of winning money on football bets online. Let’s look at three popular types of football bets and see what probability theory can do for your chances of winning.

What is the probability theory?

To put it in simple terms, probability theory is a mathematical way of analyzing how likely an event will happen. For example, when you are betting on football {แทงบอล} games online, certain factors determine if your bet will be successful or not. There’s no doubt about it – applying this math to sports betting can give you an edge over other bettors.

What are the odds of football betting?

Let’s first take a look at three popular types of bets that people usually place online:

1 The game-winner bet (where you choose who will win the game.)

The game-winner is the simplest bet of the three, so most online bookies usually offer it. All you have to do is choose who will win between two teams playing against each other.

Since there are only two possible outcomes (one team wins and one loses), placing this type of football bet means that your chance of winning is 50%. As simple as it sounds, the game-winner stake can generate a lot of money for bookies.

The main characteristic of the ‘spread’ is that there are more than two possibilities. This type of football bet means picking who will win between two teams but only by a certain number of goals (or points).

Since there are three possible outcomes (one team beats with one goal difference, tie, or loses), you have to apply probability theory to determine the chances of each outcome. For example, a bet that says ‘three or more goals will decide the winner’ means four possible effects. In this case, your chance of winning is 25% because you have one out of four chances of winning.

3 The total points bet

This type of football bet means predicting how many points will be scored by both teams. There are only two possible outcomes (one team wins or loses), but your chance is determined by applying probability theory once again.  In this case, the chance of winning is 50% because there are only two possibilities.

What can probability theory do for my football betting?

The simple answer to that question would be a lot! The fact that you have more than one possibility in spread bets and total points bets means applying math such as arithmetic and geometry (as well as probability theory) in order to make the right bet.

In conclusion, there is a lot of analysis involved in the odds of football betting. If you want to have an advantage over other bettors, applying probability theory can be extremely beneficial for your sports wagering.